The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings notes significant uncertainty about the scale, results and consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is stated in the agency’s report.
“If the economy begins to recover, given the damage caused by the war to Ukraine’s economy, we do not expect real GDP to recover to pre-war levels in our forecast period until 2027,” the report says.
According to the agency, Ukraine’s debt restructuring is taking place against the backdrop of significant economic, external and fiscal pressure caused by Russian military aggression.
The areas occupied by Russian troops account for about 15% of Ukraine’s territory and 8-9% of its pre-war GDP. Almost a third of Ukraine’s population has been displaced, and about 15% have fled the country and are now refugees.
“Regardless of the duration of the hostilities, the risks associated with them are likely to persist for some time,” the agency’s analysts added.
As a reminder, S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Ukraine’s long-term and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings from CC/C to SD/SD, which means selective default. The ratings will be upgraded upon completion of the debt restructuring.
